Putin-Erdogan agreement fulfilled thanks to TAF and HTS. The convoys are likely to move on the M4 east to Ain Issa. Meanwhile, Damascus still tries to take Barah.
Ankara continues to send assets to reduce the risk of HTS aggression on joint patrols with Russia, as well as to be ready in case the truce with Damascus fails.
Ankara tries to strengthen security on the M4 to allow the passage of joint patrols with Russia, but the HTS militias do not give up. Meanwhile, Damascus remains "in the window".
Objective: to allow joint patrols with Russia and to remove wiggle room for Damascus, which is about to launch a maxi SAA offensive against militias in the province.
The convoy, escorted by drones, enters Idlib and arrives in Naryab. But then is forced to go back. Moscow, exhausted patience with Ankara, supports the Damascus maxi operation in the province.
Surprisingly, SAA receives many reinforcements in Saraqeb. Is a maxi operation against militias starting? Ankara forced to decide whether to respect agreement with Russia or to support jihadists.
The TAF, blocked in Idlib, are still bombing the border of the buffer zone in Tal Abyad and Ain Issa. Ankara also releases a Daesh Emir. Objective: to increase the pressure on the SDF.
Ankara deployed over 2,100 vehicles and 10,000 TAF soldiers to the province, in case of Spring Shield reactivating against Damascus. Erdogan, however, also continues to negotiate with Russia.
The TAF bomb, despite the UN request for a truce, Aleppo, Ain Issa and Tal Abyad. Ankara fears back attacks if it resumes Spring Shield. Meanwhile, Damascus confirms first death from COVID-19.
Ankara tries to react to the nervousness of the militias and Russia, increasing security along the road. Deans of the TAF arrive north and south, while parallel diplomacy proceeds.