The Bay’ah’ to the new caliph confirms the strategy of the Islamic State. Pro-ISIS jihadists target Africa, especially the Sahel and the Central Quadrant, supplanting traditional areas in the Middle East and Asia

The Islamic State in Libya officially reappears to swear allegiance (Bayah, Bay’ah’) to the new caliph: Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi. The African country’s pro-ISIS jihadists are the last in the IS galaxy to carry out this task, 19 days after the announcement of the death of the previous leader: Abu Hasan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi. Just before them, the militiamen had done it in the Sinai Peninsula. The images disseminated on the training’s propaganda social channels, however, reveal an interesting element. Both the terrorists in Libya and those in Egypt are a small group, made up of a handful of elements. Nothing to do with the images referring to the “Wilayat” in Mali, Mozambique and Nigeria where dozens of militiamen unexpectedly appear together. In “traditional” areas in the Middle East, however, (with the exception of Syria) the numbers are very low. Likewise with those in Asia such as Afghanistan and the Philippines.

Why Africa is the best area today to create the caliphate

The global images of the Bay’ah, albeit in the absence of official confirmation, provide an important indicator on where the Islamic State is going and on which areas/countries it is focusing its attention and resources. We are talking about Africa and in particular the Sahel and the central/southern quadrant. This is explained by a limited military capacity of the nations involved and by a greater permeability, albeit opportunistic, of the populations to the pro-ISIS ideology. Furthermore, those targeted by IS are all areas where the international presence is limited if not absent at the behest of the local governments themselves, unwilling to “intrusions” considered cumbersome in their affairs. This mix of factors has allowed the jihadist galaxy to create at least three subgroups – ISGS, ISCAP and ISWAP – in continuous expansion. Added to this is that in the periodic proclamations of the ISIS leadership there are always scant mentions of the activities in Africa, as if they wanted to protect them by hiding them.

Tweets by Jasmine Opperman and Calibre Obscura