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Turkey gets into trouble on its own with the population in Idlib. The TAF, after shooting on the demonstrators in Nayrab, were forced to deal with HTS to restore calm. The tension in the Syrian province, however, is skyrocketing
The situation for Turkey in Idlib is further complicated. In the past few hours the TAF have opened fire on a group of civilians protesting against the Ankara-Russia joint patrols on the M4 in the Nayrab area, killing one man and injuring others. The event led to a dangerous increase in tension throughout the eastern quadrant of the Syrian region, with new protests and blockades on various sections of the highway. Recep Tayyp Erdogan’s troops were therefore forced to initiate mediations with representatives of local militias, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Negotiations are underway and calm seems to have returned, but there is a danger that an escalation of violence will break out at the first spark.
The crisis on joint patrols with Russia on the M4 is worsening for Ankara
The attack on demonstrators in Idlib is a mistake that Turkey risks paying very dearly. The episode, first of all, mortgages all its parallel diplomacy efforts made so far so that joint patrols can pass on the M4 without problems. In addition, it still increases the weight of HTS in the Syrian province. Finally, the TAF came out defeated, as they were forced to deal with the militia. A group, however, manifestly adverse for some time. Especially after it has decided to openly support the local population against the presence of foreign “invaders” in the quadrant. As a result, it will be much more difficult for Ankara to maintain its commitment with Russia on military convoys. This, despite the continuous sending of reinforcements to Syria to create new fixed garrisons on the highway, with functions of deterrent or rapid reaction force in case of problems.