The truce in Syria between Turkey and Damascus begins to wobble. Thanks to the nervousness for the coronavirus and the situation on the M4, the TAF and the SAA exchange artillery shots between Saraqeb and the interior of Idlib
The truce in Syria between Turkey and Damascus begins to wobble, thanks to the explosion of the coronavirus in the country and the pressing of Russia on Ankara to unlock joint patrols on the M4. In the past few hours, the TAF and the local army (SAA) have exchanged several artillery shots in the Saraqeb area, on the border between Idlib and Aleppo. The SAA first bombed Sarmin, Afes and Salihia. Then, Ankara’s troops responded by counterattacking in Saraqeb and Manbij (through the militias). Finally, regime forces targeted Kansarfa and Kafr Awayd further south. For now, these are only “hit and respond” retaliations, but there is a risk of escalation. Bashad Assad is in fact increasingly nervous. Both for the COVID-19 emergency and because it has just suffered a new attack in Homs, attributed to Israel, which its air defenses did not detect in time.
Meanwhile, Russia is moving independently to the east to monitor the situation on the ground and the movements between Syria and Iraq
Meanwhile, Russia is moving independently from Turkey to the north and north east of Syria. Inherent Resolve forces intercepted a new convoy of Federation vehicles traveling in the Rmelan (Hasaka) area and forced it to go back. This is only the latest in a series of similar incidents involving the two contingents, but the fact that it occurred in a very tense period and close to the border with Iraq is of concern. Moscow probably wants to better understand what the situation is “on the ground” in the quadrant and evaluate the movements that take place between the two countries. Instead, on the Syrian internal front there has been a turnaround, especially in Idlib. The clashes and bombings are much less frequent and concentrated only on the peripheral areas of the province.