The NSDC: The objective is to counter at the best the potential intensification of Russia’s hybrid aggression with the beginning of a new heating season.
The big Isis group in the Badia al-Sham desert could try to escape to Iraq. In the north, the Syrian army (SAA) has launched a maxi offensive against HTS in Idlib and in the east there are SDF. Thus, the only possible route is to the south. Baghdad sends the PMF to Anbar to seal the borders
There is the risk that the large Isis group, present in the desert of Badia Al-Sham between Homs and Deir Ezzor, wants to travel en masse south to the border with Iraq. Baghdad intelligence, which sent four brigades of the Hash militias (PMF) to conduct an operation in the western area of the province of Anbar, noted this. Objective of the maneuvers: to clean up the borders from the presence of elements of the Islamic State and to prevent possible actions of approach from the neighboring country. For the Daesh militiamen, in fact, it is impossible to aim north due to the fact that Damascus launched a maxi offensive in Idlib against Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). East of the Euphrates, the region is sealed by Jazeera Storm’s SDF that are conducting a manhunt against the jihadist sleeper cells. As a result, the only way out is towards south.
The Islamic State must leave the area between Homs and Deir Ezzor as soon as possible. Especially if it is true that it houses the Caliph Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. The Daesh “survivors” could point to Africa or Asia. In any case, however, they will have to pass through Iraq and Saudi Arabia or Jordan
On the other hand, Isis must quickly move away from the desert of Badia Al-Sham. Especially if, as stated by various sources, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi has found refuge with the group. For the Islamic State, in fact, there are increasing dangers of a Syrian army (SAA) offensive or other attacks. This follows the new Caliph video, which the intelligence is analyzing to assess its authenticity. If confirmed, it would certainly increase international efforts to find and eliminate the Daesh founder, which would also involve the “survivors”. So, they have to flee elsewhere. Or in Africa or towards Asia. But in both cases there is an obligatory direction: the one that from Syria leads to Iraq to arrive in Saudi Arabia or Jordan. In the first case, then, it passes through Sudan. In the second, from Pakistan.