The NSDC: The objective is to counter at the best the potential intensification of Russia’s hybrid aggression with the beginning of a new heating season.
The Turkish invasion in the north and east of Syria caused a 48% increase in ISIS cell attacks: from Raqqa to Deir Ezzor, passing through the Al-Hol camp and Qamishlo
The Turkish invasion in the north and east of Syria caused a 48% increase in attacks by ISIS cells. This following a 75% decrease in SDF and the Global Coalition raids against the Islamic State. Not surprisingly, the Daesh militiamen claimed to have killed 51 people between Kurdish forces and civilians from Raqqa to Deir Ezzor, passing through the Al-Hol camp and Qamishlo. The confirmation of this escalation comes from the data. On the eve of the Ankara offensive, the average aggression numbers by jihadists in the region was one per day. Instead, in recent weeks – despite the stop period after the death of al Qaghdadi and awaiting the appointment of al-Qurayshi as a new caliph – the phenomenon has exploded. In fact, it reached 38 blitzes in 21 days, an increase of 48%.
Before the start of the Turkish offensive, the SDF and Inherent Resolve had managed to bring them down by 46%. But now the situation is likely to get worse. Especially because Daesh prepares the “month of rage”: the revenge for the death of al-Baghdadi
This figure is even more striking if compared with the results obtained by the SDF and by Inherent Resolve against Isis in eastern Syria, before the Turkish offensive. The attacks of the Islamic State had collapsed. In August there were 95, while in September 51 (-46%). Furthermore, the situation is likely to get worse if there is no trend reversal. Taking most of the resources out of the struggle against Daesh puts the Kurdish forces and the local population at risk. Especially since the jihadists are planning revenge for the death of their leader. According to local sources, it seems that the militants are preparing to launch the “month of rage”, which will be characterized by numerous offensives against different targets. It is not clear, however, when it will start and what areas and countries will be involved. The good news is that the intelligence have intercepted the threat and are preparing to face it.