Something seems to be moving in Idlib: Russia raids in depth and sends new fighters. The Syrian army (SAA) follows with targeted attacks. All while the internal war between pro-Turkey militias intensifies

Something seems to be moving in Idlib, where Russia has just concluded a round of raids in the depths of the quadrant and then the Syrian army (SAA) intervened, attacking pro-Turkey militiamen in various areas: from the regional capital to Zawiya. The SAA offensive, in fact, seems to have been revitalized by surprise and in parallel with the escalation of the internal war between the minor rebel groups, now willing to do anything to grab the scarce resources sent by Ankara and distributed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with the dropper. Moreover, Russia itself has just sent four other SU-35 fighters to the Middle Eastern country, in addition to those already present together with the Mig-29s, all deployed at the Hmeimim (Khmeimim) air military base.

A Moscow-SAA maxi-offensive in Idlib is hypothesized, exploiting the Ankara difficulties after the violations of the truce on Kurdistan

On the other hand, this would be a very favorable time to launch a full-scale offensive in Idlib. The internal war has weakened the pro-Turkish militias and the recent reopening of the crossings with Aleppo has taken away a good chunk of their profits, having drastically reduced the black market. Furthermore, Ankara cannot provide them with help at the moment, being in trouble with Moscow for having violated the Russian-mediated truce in Kurdistan. Any obvious interference in the Syrian region, in fact, would widen the rift between the two countries at a time when work is being done to mend it. Especially since Turkey has no intention of backing down on the Kurdish region, despite warnings from Moscow.