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The Russia-Turkey joint patrols in Idlib are not working. The second activity on the M4 reduced as the first for security reasons. The TAF alone, however, in recent days had entered the Syrian province without problems
Joint patrols between Turkey and Russia on the M4 in Syria are not working. A few hours ago there was a second attempt, after the first on March 15, but this also had to be stopped shortly after the start. The cause is always security threats. The population continues to organize roadblocks and local militias threaten to attack the convoys that will enter Idlib. For Ankara, however, in the past few days it had gone better. A column of TAF vehicles had managed to enter the province and penetrate without problems. This led to speculation that parallel diplomacy efforts were bearing fruit. However, as soon as the mixed contingent recreated, the situation returned to the starting point. The reason is that Moscow participates in the Damascus offensive against the rebels in the area. Ankara, on the other hand, supports them even if not officially.
Moscow is getting nervous and intimated to Ankara to resolve the matter quickly, or its forces will. Turkey, however, is closed between two fires and fears losing the support of local militias. Meanwhile, Damascus takes advantage of this to keep the stalemate
The new stop to joint patrols with Russia in Idlib is a problem for Turkey. In fact, these are part of the truce agreement with Damascus and must be respected. Moscow is getting nervous about it and asked Ankara to quickly solve the issue. Otherwise, it will act on its own. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, however, cannot intervene militarily against the militias. It would lose their support in the area of influence and put the border at risk. As a result, he continues to work with parallel diplomacy, hoping to unlock the situation. The Assad regime, however, sensed what is happening and is taking advantage of it. It is no coincidence that the SAA continues to concentrate its efforts to the south, between Hama and Idlib, and to the east, on the border with Aleppo, not hitting any targets on the M4. Objective: to keep the stalemate while preventing Turkey from reactivating the Spring Shield operation.