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Syria at a step from all-out war. Awaiting for Trump’s decisions

Trump has declared that “important” decisions for Syria will be taken within the following 24-48 hours. Mattis: we are not excluding any hypothesis on a possible military action

Less than a step away from an all-out war in Syria. Especially after the words of Usa president, Donald Trump, who accused Damascus again of being responsible for attacking Douma (Ghouta) with chemical agents, causing the death of many civilians. The president of the United States called his counterpart of the middle eastern country an “animal” for the atrocities committed and announced that “important decisions will be made in the following 24-48 hours”. The Defense Secretary, general James Mattis, declared that “he cannot exclude any option” on a possible military action against the regime if Assad. An action of this type, however, was already adopted a year ago in a similar situation. In that circumstance, in response to the massacre of Khan Sheikhoun, 59 Tomahawk missiles were launched from two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, against one of the (SAA) Syrian Army’s bases. And already yesterday there was a hint of what could happen. Several jets, presumably Israelis, bombarded the air base T4 causing numerous victims.

The USA are concentrating  the attention of sensors and reconnaissance on Syria. Damascus evacuates the bases at Deir Ezzor and prepares an attack against Daesh at al-Yarmouk

Trump still hasn’t announced his “important” decisions regarding Syria, but in the last hours aerial reconnaissance assets as the RC-135V Rivet Joint have taken off and ISR sensors are pointed on the country. Moreover, the USS Donald Cook guided missile destroyer is arriving in the area. It still unknown where, how and when the US reaction will materialize. However it seems very likely that it will. To the point that the SAA has already started to evacuate some of their bases, principally at Deir Ezzor. Damascus, instead, does not seem particularly worried – at least apparently- by the escalation – and is carrying on with its plans to reclaim Ghouta from rebels and terrorists. In the last hours there have been massive arrivals of soldiers in the southern quadrant if the enclave. Objective: free from Daesh the refugee camp of al-Yarmouk. The Islamic State controls great part if it, together with approximately half of the district of Qadam.

In this scenario of pressure, only the Islamic State is benefitting from the situation. Isis can take a breath and get reorganized to attack the defenses of the SAA at Abu Kamal

In this scenario, the only one to benefit is the Daesh. Especially at Deir Ezzor. The Islamic State, in fact, has launched new attacks against the Syrian Army at Abu Kamal (Al Bukamal) and has resumed the smuggling of crude oil, exploiting an oil well under its control in the oil field of Sayyan. If there will be an escalation, the pressure on Isis will presumably diminish. As a consequence the militaries will be able to reorganize and plan more efficient actions against the SAA in the province. Especially after having realized that the defenses of Damascus soldiers in the quadrant are solid but not impenetrable.

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