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Africa, war in Ukraine and new former ISIS caliph are a powder keg

The appointment of the new caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Hasan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi, is galvanizing the jihadists in Africa. Attacks from the Sahel to other regions increase

The appointment of the new caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Hasan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi, is galvanizing the jihadists in Africa. In all areas where ISGS, ISWAP and ISCAP operate: from the Sahel to Mozambique, passing through Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC / RDC). In fact, attacks on military and civilian targets have increased across the entire quadrant. There has generally been a tendency to boost ambushes. This, particularly after at least nine of the formal 14 wilayat IS active around the world have sworn allegiance to the new supreme leader. Consequently, a further resurgence of violence in all regions is to be expected.

However, the international partners of African countries in the fight against terrorism, from the EU to Russia, are “distracted” by the war in Ukraine

In the context of the global increase in attacks and violence by groups linked to the former ISIS, Africa risks being the continent most involved. This, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is concentrating all the attention of the international partners of local governments in the fight against ISCAP, ISWAP and ISGS both on the operational front and on that of logistical supplies. Consequently, the nations of the continent will necessarily have to rely mainly on regional contingents and internal partners, who have limited capacities and numbers. Moreover, in all probability the allied formations of the Islamic State will try to exploit the crisis in Europe to try to increase their influence in the quadrant and gain ground.

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